Who Should Win?: Get Out
Get Out is the most revolutionary film on the list for this year's Best Picture nominations. What Jordan Peele did with this film is something that will be taught in film schools and discussed in pop culture for decades. The sad thing is that this film would probably win Best Picture if it were not for the fact that the film was released all the way back in February of 2017. With the film being older than a year, Get Out will not be the "sexy" film to talk about and therefore fail to take home the Oscar.
Who Will Win?: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
While Get Out, Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water have grabbed a ton of attention during the award season, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has been a sleeping giant this season. Yes, the film has faced some controversy on its journey but that hasn't slowed down the success one bit. Three Billboards has cleaned house in terms of winning including wins at the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTAs. Their tear will continue into the night when the film snags a few more wins including the top award of the night.
Who Should Win?: Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Talks about a break out role for an actor. Daniel Kaluuya jumped onto the scene with Jordan Peele's directorial debut and crushed it as Chris Washington. His performance showed a ton of strength as well as vulnerability. No matter what skin color and racial background you come from, you can understand Chris' fears. Kayuuya's performance is half the reason this film is nominated for Best Picture and should be the reason he deserves to win Best Actor. Sadly, he won't because of his youth and the academy having to award a mulligan.
Who Will Win?: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
This is going to be a year the Academy says, "We're sorry you haven't won anything for your entire career" and award Gary Oldman his first Oscar. Oldman was terrific in Darkest Hour and carried a film that was basic at best. Oldman's transformation into the English prime minister is one that makes him unrecognizable to the common moviegoer. While his physical transformation is noteworthy, we've seen Oldman deliver far more powerful performances from characters that are even more unrecognizable. Oldman won't be winning the Oscar for Winston Churchill, he will be winning the award for Sid, Dracula, Commissioner Gordon, George Smiley, Mason Verger, and Zorg.
Who Should Win?: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Frances McDormand has always been one of those actresses that shows up, gives a solid performance, and goes home. She might not have the top billing of actresses such as Meryl Streep, Angelina Jolie, and Charlize Theron but her resume and talent speaks for itself. The emotional weight that McDormand carried with her character throughout Three Billboards is mesmerizing. You can feel Mildred's pain deep inside yourself and all of her rash and outlandish decisions somehow make sense to you. Frances McDormand makes Three Billboards just as much as Daniel Kayuuya makes Get Out.
Who Will Win?: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Why this film is getting so much attention this award season is still mind-boggling. Lady Bird is not a bad film but the fact is that this film should not be a contender. Instead, the film could potentially win 3-4 of the major awards at the Oscars. There are many films much deserving and Best Actress is one of them. That being said, the academy is going to want to spread the love tonight and what better way to show love for Lady Bird than with the face of the film itself. Ronan's performance as Lady Bird was nothing truly special. It doesn't take much talent to channel the inner-thinking of a whiney, stuck-up, angry teenager that hates her life and her family and then gets everything she wants in the end.
Who Should Win and Will Win?: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is the first category on here that I'm going to agree with who will most likely win this award. Just when you forgot how good Sam Rockwell was as an actor, he shows up in Three Billboards and gives the strongest performance of his career. While the social criticism for his character is justifiable, I don't believe that will affect his chances of winning tonight. Rockwell has nearly swept every other major award show leading up the Oscars so it didn't affect that. When you have a accused assaulter working the red carpet, do the decisions of a fictional character really matter to the academy? Rockwell will win, book it.
Who Should Win and Will Win?: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
While I have criticized Lady Bird a ton on this blog and in my personal life, one of the bright spots of this film that I will praise is the performance of Laurie Metcalf as Lady Bird's mom. Marion McPherson is one of the most relatable characters in this movie hands down. All of us in our lives have had moments where we agree or disagree with our parents. We fight, we laugh, and we love them when dealing with our growth as an adolescent. Metcalf's performance is not only a performance of Lady Bird's mother but of all our mothers.
Who Should Win?: Jordan Peele - Get Out
Talk about one of the biggest career transitions a person has ever made. From skit-comedy star to Oscar-nominated horror director, Peele is becoming one of the hottest names in the business. His directorial debut Get Out is probably the most talked about film in 2017. Peele is well deserving of this award but Hollywood might consider passing on Peele because he is a first-time director and believe that he can make something just as good later on down the road. As we've learned before and are reminded of with Oldman this year, don't try to be a fortune-teller with these awards and then correct yourself down the road when you find out you messed up. Do you want #OscarsSoWhite to stop? Do you want changes to be made in Hollywood? Then do the right thing and give this man the recognition he deserves.
Who Will Win?: Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig has been in the independent scene for a while with her collaborations with Noah Baumbach. While her work as an actress has not gotten much recognition, her solo-writing and directorial debut has made Greta Gerwig a household name. While it is intriguing that the two favorites to win this year are two first-time directors, Greta's work with this film might be the weakest resume in comparison to her competitors. Between the technical achievements Christopher Nolan and Guillermo del Toro did to the revolutionary work Jordan Peele did, Greta Gerwig doesn't bring anything new to the table with Lady Bird. The Oscars will use this award as a statement to the #TimesUp movement. While Best Director has only been won by a woman once before, tonight they make it twice.
Who Should Win?: Logan
When will good comic book films get award recognition? Yes, I know Heath Ledger won an oscar for his performance as the Joker in The Dark Knight but Hollywood has produced a handful of incredible comic book films over the past few years. With the genre expanding and entering new horizons of story-telling, Logan is the example of what can happen when a comic book film is given serious attention. While I do not believe Logan is the best comic book film of the year, it's one of the most different comic book films we've seen ever in cinema. The swan song of Hue Jackman is one that deserved some recognition.
Who Will Win?: The Disaster Artist
Being a fan of The Room and someone who also read the book, The Disaster Artist is a film that this team of comedians somehow got right. The behind-the-scenes story of The Room is something so complex, crazy, and weird, that it is very easy to fall into the realm of parody and full-blown comedy when approaching this material. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (and maybe others if their lawsuit continues), understood the source material well and knew that there was more than just laughs when it comes to Tommy Wiseau. I appreciate what these guys did with this film and won't be disappointed if this film takes home Best Adapted Screenplay.
Who Should Win? The Big Sick - Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
One of my favorite films of the year is The Big Sick. When someone comes up to me and asks me what film got snubbed, I always come back to this film. The Big Sick is one of the most powerful films of the year that makes you laugh, cry, love, and laugh again. The amount of work it must have been for Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani to reopen old wounds and tell this true story about their early dating lives must have been tough. With Hollywood's lazy attempts and pumping out content by rebooting and making sequels to every property, the academy should celebrate Emily and Kumail for sharing their story and giving audiences something fresh and new.
Who Will Win?: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro
When your film is nominated for 13 academy awards, you have to win something in the major categories, right? This year's Oscars are going to be very political in terms of who wins and who doesn't this season. Trying to acknowledge the #TimesUp movement and also fight the battle against #OscarsSoWhite, the academy is going to try and find a way to make everyone happy this year. Because of that, things will be messy and The Shape of Water is going to lose some awards to films it's better than. Guillermo could still walk away with Best Director when it's all over and he is more worthy of that award than of Best Screenplay. The fact is that with Greta Gerwig most likely winning Director and Three Billboards winning best picture, Guillermo could snag this award at the end of the night. If Guillermo's film finds itself without many awards at the end of the night, he can always look at Jordan Peele and realize he's not the only person getting screwed over.